J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS ANALYSIS

So I had to cut out of work a little early to meet the cable guy at my apartment, so I (per usual) checked out my favorite JETS website, The Jets Blog, at www.thejetsblog.com. I'm kind of known as the pessimist on that site, because (I think) I'm more realistic and don't allow my fandom to cloud my judgment. Anyway, I wrote a novel that rivals Tolstoy's War and Peace in the comments section on one of The Jets Blog's threads, so I figured I'd cut-and-paste it here, with some editing of course.

My post breaks down as follows: I separated the offense and defense, analyzed both, and gave them a win total that I think the respective units bring to the table. I guess the best comparison would be someone looking at the Rams offense after they got Marshall Faulk and saying "Now this has the makings of a Super Bowl winning offense". The only difference is that I'm saying something more like "Now this has the makings of an 8-8 offense".

[I am posting about a Jets Blog blogger's] comments regarding his inability to see “this offense” getting less than 5 wins. I think his question requires a time machine, taking this year’s offense and plopping it on the field with last year’s defense and last year’s schedule. I don’t think that the offense has improved so drastically (on paper) that they’re automatically a win better. Sure, improvement is LIKELY b/c the LG and RT play was so horrific last year, and in fact more than a 1 win improvement is likely based upon that upgrade and adding a chip like Keller. Its just not automatic in my book. Everyone talks about how getting another break or two might’ve had the JETS at 8 wins last year… but losing another break or two (the Dolphins game I was at when the ‘Phins almost came back and the worthless Chiefs game at the end of the year), and they’d have been 2-14, so I disregard those statements. Teams with good records always seem to have good luck (like the Pats during their previous Super Bowl runs that predated all the current star power [please, trust me I know how good Brady, Seymour, et al were, but they took it to another level with last year’s additions]). In other words, I don’t think that last year’s offense was an 8-8 offense that got unlucky and went 4-12. I think last year’s offense was anywhere from a 2-14 to a 5-11 offense that went 4-12. We did add the best OG in football to fill our weakest spot on the O-Line, and we did add a potential playmaker in Keller (lets consider Faneca, assuming health, to be an automatic star player)… Keller’s contribution and development is no guarantee, so its fully possible that we have last year’s offense plus an elite LG, and a 50/50 shot at a healthy Coles (just like last year).

If I were a fan with a sunny disposition, I’d consider Keller to be a likely instant go-to guy as a 3rd option/check-down option who comes down with 50 catches, many of which are in key spots, a fully healthy Coles for 16 games, the continued development of D’Brick (Mangold is already awesome and will definitely benefit from Faneca so I’m not worried about the C position), Damien Woody is actually not only decent but very good at RT, and Kellen Clemens, with protection and an improved running game, shows off his arm… but not in a pre-Super-Bowl-run-Eli-Manning way (throwing for a ton of TD’s and yards but throwing a ton of picks and constantly making key mistakes at the worst time), but in a 2006 Drew Brees mold (efficient, great yardage, decent TD-to-INT ratio).

Thats a lot of things working out perfectly all at the same time and I cannot say its likely to be the case that all of the above variables work out perfectly for the JETS. Most likely, out of the above “sunny disposition” predictions, I’d say its most likely that Keller does pan out as a decent receiving threat in his first year, making some plays but taking a while to adjust, finishing with a “good year” in the 3rd WR/TE/H-Back role with 30-40 catches (if things work out perfectly and/or Coles gets hurt per usual, I can certainly see him grabbing 50); Faneca (assuming health) is awesome; Mangold continues his ascension to being a Pro Bowler; D’Brick continues to be average but makes less horrible plays where he is tossed around like a rag doll; Woody is a fat waste of space and doesn’t have the feet to play even RT; and Clemens — in his first really fair chance to play in front of a compentent team — shows off his arm strength, throwing for a lot of yards and a good amount of TD’s… but also a good amount of INTs. At best, I see Clemens having an Eli-Manning type year (and yes, I'm referring to Eli's career before the final game of the year against the Pats and forward from there). I don't think Clemens has that kind of cap to his potential, but this will be his first year with competent players around him, so I don't expect magic. Thomas Jones will get better because the O-Line is better (even a fat, slow and useless Woody is an upgrade), and the JETS are good enough on offense to be an average team, maybe even get a Wild Card spot at 10-6 if the defense improves.

By the way, for the record, I’m MUCH more optimistic about DRASTIC improvements on defense. I LOVE the way Harris and Revis turned out; I count Kerry Rhodes as a Pro Bowler the past 2 years and he’ll be there in the future; Kris Jenkins was the EXACT type of guy they needed but didn’t come close to having; there are a bunch of guys competing for the #2 slot, and even having Poteat there doesn’t mean you can’t be a very good defense (though it’ll be a weak spot); while I don’t think they’ll all pan out for next year, its fair to say that in all likelihood, 2 out of the 3 of Gholston, Pace and Bryan Thomas will be good-to-very good OLB’s next year, and Gholston may have some Merriman-like-pass-rushing ability; I think that Sean Ellis is underrated by most JETS fans (though far from ideal for the 3-4 defense); and I think that Coleman is serviceable at DE.

So while I think the offense might be an 7-9 to 9-7 offense, I think the defense is a 9-7 to 10-6 unit. I know its weird to think this way (separating the two), but thats my analysis of these units. This makes 10-6 a possibility, but as I've said many times before, if you put a gun to my head and made me guess the JETS record this year, I'd say 8-8; I'd certainly say 7-9 before I said 10-6 with my life on the line!

So you see, I’m not always doom and gloom.